Alton Aviation Publishes 2023 - 2033 Global MRO Demand Forecast

Dark/Light Mode (26/09/23)  According to a report from Alton Aviation Consultancy, global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) spend will grow 2.2% annually over the next 10 years, from $112 billion to $138 billion, in response to faster than expected traffic recovery and fewer aircraft retirements.

Alton’s annual Global MRO Demand Forecast provides in-depth insight into the trends driving the growth of MRO spend around the world.

The report shows that higher material costs and labor cost inflation, alongside traffic recovery and retirement trends, will contribute to significant year-on-year MRO demand growth compared to historical rates.

Modification Spend by Category ($b) from Alton Aviation Consultancy's 2023-2033 Global MRO Demand Forecast

“Supply chain challenges and a lack of skilled workers are causing airlines to delay aircraft retirements, which in turn is boosting MRO spend, with older aircraft requiring more maintenance intensive overhauls,” said Adam Guthorn, report co-author and managing director in Alton’s New York office. “Likewise, the rapid recovery of air traffic has resulted in greater demand for MRO because airlines are increasing aircraft utilization to better meet passenger demand. MRO growth is being driven by strong demand in Asia Pacific in particular, which accounts for 35% of global MRO demand globally, with North America and Europe each representing around 20% of global demand. There’s also uneven demand in terms of MRO segments – with engines the largest contributor, accounting for 52% of spend in 2022. With new generation engines gradually replacing mature generation engines, we can anticipate that overhaul events of new generation engines will increase from 25% of total events in 2023 to 69% by 2033. Poor reliability of new generation engines are also impacting the MRO market, with many new generation engines having shop visits at intervals much sooner than their predecessor engines.”

Alton’s report also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the airline industry and passenger demand recovery, and explores the potential impact of workplace shortages, supply chain disruptions and macroeconomic challenges to include inflation, interest rates, and the Russia-Ukraine war, which are all driving increased levels of uncertainty.

Joshua Ng, report co-author and director in Alton’s Singapore office, said, “An additional contributor to MRO growth will be the modifications sector, which continues to grow faster than the overall rate of the industry. Airlines are seeking to optimize their aircraft configurations to improve profitability, which means implementing cabin modifications more frequently as they compete on product quality.”

To download the free 15-page, 7.11MB .pdf of Alton’s 2023 Global MRO Demand Forecast please click here. Registration / login is required.

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